DO THE NETHERLANDS 'TRAINS Really Run on 100% Wind Power?

This question generated a number of comments in the last Blowout, so I thought I would take a quick look at it. I find that the electrified portion of the Dutch railway network (NederlandseSpoorwegen, or NS) runs on grid electricity that comes dominantly from fossil fuel generation (natural gas and coal). NS claims 100% wind power, because it has a contract with various wind farms to produce enough energy to power its rail system, but this is just an accounting transaction. Only a small fraction of the power, delivered to its trains actually, comes from wind.

First, some details on the Netherlands' electricity sector. As shown in Table 1, installed capacity is dominantly fossil fuel, with natural gas making up 61% of total installed capacity and coal 15%. Wind contributes 4,117 MW, representing 13% of the capacity mix. (Data from ENTSO-E ).

No details on the current generation mix are readily available, but as shown in Figure 1, gas and coal supplied around 80% of the Netherlands' electricity between 2000 and 2013, and it's likely that this percentage still applies.

How much of the Netherlands' electricity is supp­l­ied by wind? According to Cleantechnica, wind power in the Netherlands generates 7.4 billion kWh (7.4 TWh) of electricity annually, and according to BP the Netherlands' total electricity generation in 2015 was 109.6 TWh. However, wind power consumption in the Netherlands in 2015 was 12.5 TWh, indicating that about 5 TWh of wind power was imported during the year. So, while wind contributes about 7% to the Netherlands' electricity generation, it contributes about 11% to the country's electricity consumption. Either figure comfortably exceeds the amount of electricity NS uses to power its electric trains, which is variously quoted as either 1.2 or 1.4 TWh/year.

The Netherlands imports wind power basically, because it's falling behind its EU renewable energy targets. But, how does NS knows the power it imports is wind? Because Eneco, which contracts to supply NS with wind power, gets a “Guarantee of Origin” from the exporter, under which the exporter confirms that the power came from wind and assigns the rights to it to NS. As Cleantechnica puts it - “The GoO system allows for the transfer of the rights to call electricity green from those, who actually generate renewable energy to those who don't, but want to classify their power as green. The actual amount of green energy produced is unaffected.”
There is, however, a problem. For NS to use only wind power from wind farms to power its rail system, the wind farms must be connected directly to NS's railways. (Figure 2: Note the dotted lines showing non-electrified track. According to LJ Electrical only 2,231km of NS's total 3,223km of track is electrified): Table 2 And, of course no such connections exist. The two Dutch wind farms that have contracted to sell power to NS (Noordoostpolder and Luchterduinen) are both connected directly to the Dutch grid, along with all the other power plants in the country, and NS draws its power from the grid.

When wind power is fed into a grid it becomes inextricably mixed with all the vibrating electrons from other generation sources to the point, where there is no way of knowing where any power taken from the grid came from. Grid power, in fact, reflects the overall generation mix, which in the case of the Netherlands is dominantly gas and coal with only a small contribution from wind. How much wind? Over the course of this year, the average will be around 11%, equal to wind power's share of the Netherlands' annual grid electricity consumption.

And, only half of the wind power NS has contracted for comes from the Netherlands. The other half comes from 'newly built wind farms in Belgium and Finland'. Wind power now supplies about 10% of Belgium's electricity, so power imported from the Belgian grid will be about 10% wind. Wind power from Finland can be discounted. Only about 2% of Finland's generation mix is wind, and by the time it passes through the Finnish, Swedish and German grids, on its way to the Netherlands, it will effectively have disappeared. Imports from the German grid, however, will contain about 14% wind power, although not wind power that NS has contracted for. Putting these numbers together indicates that only 10-15% of the electricity consumed annually by NS's electric trains will come from wind, with the rest a mixture that includes mostly Dutch gas and coal, plus a small amount of Belgian and German coal, nuclear and lignite - and maybe, even a little German solar.

With an installed capacity of around 1850 MW in this month, the overall wind capacity factor was 11% and there were a number of occasions on which wind generation fell effectively to zero for hours on end. During these periods, wind generation in the neighboring Netherlands would also have fallen to low levels. Were these conditions to repeat themselves now, and if NS's trains were powered exclusively by wind, they would almost certainly come to a halt. (Although Eneco, NS's wind power procurer, claims that its “wind farm portfolio guarantees sufficient capacity to cover such eventualities”. Apparently Eneco can make the wind blow to order.)
So how NS justifies the claim that all Dutch trains run on 100% wind power? Well, it actually claims that only the electrified portion runs on 100% wind. Only The Guardian has seen fit to publish a correction: 'An earlier version said, all Dutch trains were now 100% powered by wind-generated electricity according to the national railway company NS. The company said all electric trains were now powered by wind energy. (My emphasis) And, how NS justifies this lesser claim? According to Railway Technology, because it has a 'green energy contract - thought to be among the largest yet, signed in Europe - between power supplier Eneco and VIVENS, an energy procurement joint venture comprising Netherlands Railways (NS), Veolia, Arriva, Connexxion and rail freight firms', and because 'NS and Eneco have carefully selected a list of wind farms, that fulfill their criteria of being traceable, sustainable - or renewable - and additional, or new', and because 'This partnership ensures that new investments can be made in even newer wind farms, which will increase the share of renewable energy. In this way, the Dutch railways aim to reduce the greatest negative environmental impact caused by CO2, in such a way that its demand actually contributes to the sustainable power generation in the Netherlands and Europe.'

The first two are “feel good” justifications that have no practical impact. The third - that by purchasing wind power that would otherwise have gone elsewhere, NS is leaving the door open for more wind projects and more CO2 reductions - is the only one that offers any tangible benefits. But, there is no guarantee that the unfilled demand will be met by renewables, and in any event the 1.2-1.4 TWh/year consumed by NS represents barely more than 1% of the Netherlands' annual electricity consumption and a totally negligible fraction of European consumption. This is hardly enough to make a big deal about. Meanwhile, the Netherl­­ands' electrified railways continue to be powered dominantly by fossil fuel electricity. The “Harried Dutch commuters”, who are “travelling on one of the most environmentally friendly rail networks in the whole of Europe, if not the world”, are being sold a bill of goods.

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